Friday, February 29, 2008
The Cost of iraq
The war in Iraq has now become the most costly conflict in American history, with the exception of World War II. Here Amy Goodman and Juan Gonzales interview Nobel economics laureate, Joseph Stiglitz and co-author Linda Bilmes about their new book "The Three Trillion Dollar War"
the Cost video
Thursday, February 28, 2008
Water Wars
Water is shaping up to be the next strategic resource. We assume it will be there when we need it, but it's drying up rapidly, virtually everywhere. Reportedly, California has 20 years of water left at current consumption growth, and New Mexico has ten. Around the country and around the globe, multinational corporations are heavily investing in water resources. I have linked, below, to a discussion of this issue on Democracy Now.
Water Wars Video
Monday, February 25, 2008
What's Wrong With American Health Care
There was a time when everyone paid for their own health care..for all of it. This meant that most folks didn't have the services of a doctor. They had various things fading to the present from the past..shamans, midwives, witches, healers and all manner of folks interested in healing in primitive ways. As the industrial age emerged, medicine grew apace as a profession. Increasingly, the land owning classes and the nuveau riche enlisted the services of increasingly scientific medical professionals. The masses began, slowly, to find their own modern medical providers as well. We've endless heart warming stories of doctors in horse drawn carriages and early automobiles making house calls on patients in small town America. All, again, paid out of pocket. This was limiting. A working class family, after all, could only pay so much; and rich clients were scarce and reserved for the well known, successful doctors. It would be nice to have something to enhance the incomes of ordinary physicians. The answer was Blue Cross. This was a medical insurance plan founded for the benefit of the American Medical Association and their members. The AMA is the professional association of US doctors. With medical insurance, the possibilities were more limitless than anyone could have imagined.
With the pooling of risks implicit in an insurance program, individuals would happily undergo any promising treatments covered by their policies. This opened vistas. Armed with a reservoir of dollars pledged by fellow insurance clients, patients could now try new options for improved treatment. The Second World War helped too. With wage controls in place to keep inflation in check, manufacturers began offering health care benefits--health insurance. These perks escaped government controls and became a popular method of luring workers in a very tight wartime labor market. This was the beginning of employer health benefits.
The problem, finally, was profit. Health insurance was a for profit industry. Indeed, it had proved to be the magic elixer which would induce customers to opt for procedures they could never otherwise afford, increasing incomes for doctors, hospitals, drug companies and all manner of health care industry providers. The situation was complicated by the fact that employers paid the premiums, and generally didn't heavily resist increases until much later when crisis cost level increases became common. Insurance driven health care was a perfect "cost plus" industry. The ultimate payers for the health care were employers, not customers, Health care premiums were part of employment contracts. Cost incrases were easy to pass along One needed new machines (like the one that goes "ping"), new drugs, new surgeries, new research, more hospital beds and on and on. Each new investment (done at great cost since health care is all important), justified new charges and new health industry earnings. Finally, it simply got out of control.
As early as 5 or more years ago, General Motors and Ford called for national health care. They could no longer afford to pay health care costs for employers--particularly since their competitors around the globe had government funded, single payer health care. The USA does not. The employers carried it all. Now, with Globalization, US companies compete directly with the rest of the world which has national health care.
Under national health care schemes, there is not cost plus push to raise investment in drugs, doctors' incomes, hospital fees, testing and myriad other services to maximize profits. The goal is rational, effective, cost efficient health care for everyone. Our system is profit maximizing health care with nearly no cost oversight.
Current proposals for "universal" health care do not invoke 'single provider', or government based health care probrams. This isn't surprising. We have a multi-billion dollar a year health insurance and health provider industry all reliant on private insurance. Private insurance companies add nothing whatever. They simply do (badly) what single provider (government owned) systems do. The outlook is not good. Such reform as we shall have--and we shall have some--will simply add government payments to the private, cost plus, insurance, health, drug industry. All of this will result in even more money tossed at a grasping, out of control industry group.
For those who argue that single provider health care will cost too much and be inefficient, let them refute this: the US already pays more per capita for health care than any other nation on the planet, and we're at best in the middle of the pack on standard public heath metrics (life expectancy, birth rate survival, etc.). The money is spent, but unwisely, on disease treatment rather than prevention, and only on the section of insured Americans--not on the vast millions without any coverage whatever.
We shall fail with health reform, again because we've wedded ourselves to the "free market", the most brutal and unfair system the Enlightenment ever thought up.
Saturday, February 23, 2008
Beyond the Green Zone
Those of you who don't know about Dahr Jamail are really missing something. This is a man who comes from a conservative American background who went to Iraq as an independent journalist. He did not embed with US forces as mainstream media reporters did. He simply went and began reporting. A very brave thing to do. Listen to this man. This speech is a little old, but not that out of date. It's raw truth reported by a truly independent journalist. Have a look:
Beyond the Green Zone
Here is a gallery of photos from Dahr Jamail's site
Those of you with a strong stomach should look at the Fallujah photos. The pictures of the old men shot dead in their beds are a strong statement about our treatment of combatants. American journalism, at least in Iraq, has been dead for a long time.
Tuesday, February 19, 2008
The Trials of Henry Kissenger
I always knew he was considered a "realist", but I didn't fully understand what that implied. This film explains the concept and more.
Kissinger Video
My Copy of the Video
Monday, February 18, 2008
You Are What You Eat...or So They Say
A study more than 100 years ago noted that when the Wester diet was introduced into traditional cultures, the residents of those cultures began to develop predictably increased levels of specific maladies: obesity, heart disease and cancer. What is it about our diet that produces these results? This interview with Amy Goodman of Democracy Now provides some answers.
Click here for the interview
Wednesday, February 13, 2008
When Online Shopping Goes Bad
Screenplay 4805 projector. It's like buying a new stylus for your
phono cartridge (for you older folks out there), all that money ($300)
and you're merely back to where you thought you were to start with.
Not that the 4805 is a bad unit, it's just not nearly "state of the
art". So, the search for an alternative was on. I did a _lot_ of
research, planning and near buying (plasma, lcd, dlp rear projection)
before deciding to simply get a new front projector. I found the
Optoma HD72 (nice unit) for a great price ($1024 with a $200 rebate
bringing it to $824) from an outfit called www.bestpricecameras.com.
I decided to buy from them. As I filled out the order, I noticed that
the price stayed at $1024. Wondering when the $200 rebate would be
applied, I went to the end of the process (without filling out the
requested credit card information, and found that the price was still
1024 plus $40 in shipping (when the pricegrabber or whichever service
touted free shipping). Incredibly, the order went through even to the
emailed acknowledgment. I called them and got the order canceled,
learning in process that this was a mail in manufacturer's rebate--I
hate those. Looking at the rebate tab at Optoma.com, I discovered
that rebate expired Jan 31, 2008. My order was placed on Feb 10th as
the rebate still appeared on the bestpricecameras web site.
Doing further research, I came across the Mitsubishi HC1500, a unit
nearly identical to the Optoma in spec, except the best price (once
more from a price search service) listed bestpricecameras, again, as
cheapest at $699 with free shipping. I went back to this outfit and
ordered the Mitsubishi HC1500, even adding the $199, 3 year bulb
warranty which offered two free bulb replacements (worth $300 each) in
the three year period. Sounded great. Order completed, confirmation
in the email box.
This morning at just after 7am, I'm awakened (I'm retired, you know) with a call from J&K Cameras mentioning my order and requesting the 3 digit security code on the back of my credit card. I stumbled to my office, wiped my sleep filled eyes, got the card and gave them the number. The guy on the line then says "this is the wholesale version of the HC1500 which doesn't come with a bulb". What?! "Yeah, he says, now the bulb sells for $500, but since you took the bulb warranty, we'll sell you the bulb for $199. What?! "OK, he says, how about $99, would you pay $99 for the bulb?" This is absurd, I say, I've never heard of a projector being sold without the bulb, I'm canceling the order. He says, "You'll have to pay the cancellation fee." I reply that I'll dispute that. His response is to hang up.
I'm thinking, this bestpricecameras.com has a real security problem, they've been hacked and the hacker had the order information, probably the credit card number and now the 3 digit security code all wrapped in a nice package to get me mad enough to ignore the fraud and allow him to hang up and for me to fume, forgetting that I'd just passed along the last piece of info the crook needed.
I called the credit card company and canceled that card number, asking for a new card to be sent along. No problem.
Then I called bestpricecameras.com and gave my order number. I then asked, are you JK Cameras? Yes, they replied. I then asked where in the online ad they specified that the projector came without a bulb. The guy on the other end whose voice I just then recognized as the one that had called me said, "the order's canceled. I don't have time to talk to you" 'click'.
I can just imagine Mitsubishi sending out container loads of non-functioning projectors, leaving their customers on their own to find a bulb. I also know where the bulbs for the 3 year bulb guarantee program come from--I think they're the ones that JK Camera (DBA bestpricecameras.com) removes from the projectors they sell.
I strongly advise not doing business with either JK Cameras, or bestpricecameras.com. There's probably nothing illegal in their tactics, it's just sleazy and wrong.
Mr. Accessory, d.b.a. J and K Cameras, Inc., jandkcameras.com, Best Price Cameras, BestPriceCameras.com, Enterprise Photo, EnterprisePhoto.com, Razz Photo, RazzPhoto.com
1965 McDonald Ave.
Current location. Address found in a resellerratings.com comment for Best Price Cameras. For prior locations see pictures following. Razz Photo, the newest name, was first found at ShopCartUSA, where they are a featured merchant and have a static 3715 reviews. Domain created on: 10-Aug-07. For several months after this the only connection was the domain has the same zip code, the same domain registrar, the same whois cloaking, and the same IP as Best Price Cameras. The BBB has 1695 McDonald Ave for RazzPhoto's address. Just a few comments so far at ResellerRatings.com. Update: They had been using Century 21 Electronics, Century21electronics.com. The Century 21 department store sued them for trademark infringement and harming the stores' reputation. The judge agreed. When they first moved here they were also using MrAccessory.com, InfinityCameras.com, InfinitiCameras.com, and InfinitiPhoto.com, but they are all now down.
Sunday, February 10, 2008
When Marial Law is Declared
FBI Deputizes Business
The politics of fear takes another disturbing turn with the revelation that the FBI and Homeland Security are creating a network of business "mini G men" (called Infraguard) whose job it is to inform the FBI about suspicious activities (including those of "disgruntled" employees) and who in exchange are provided with special information about domestic and foreign activities (terrorist or otherwise) which may threaten their industries.
This information will be provided them prior to informing elected political figures and the general public.
Under martial law, these special members would be able travel in "restricted areas" and bring people in or out. Members report attending meetings where FBI agents informed them that when, not if, martial law is declared, members will be allowed to use lethal force to defend their properties--and will not be prosecuted. This special, new private security service consists of several thousand business people who will have special rights of communication with Federal security agencies, who will be provided with restricted information and who will be able to move freely during martial law and to use lethal force. Infraguard cautions it's members to carefully vet any questions they receive and consider answers so that embarrassment might be avoided.
Wednesday, February 6, 2008
Impeach! A Nice Summary of a Few Reasons
It's good to have someone actually piece together some footage (isn't that a quaint term) that proves the lies. There's more than a bit of that done here. Have a look.
Some great refutations, and suggestions (six minute video)
10 Myths About Canadian Health Care, Busted
By Sara Robinson
I'm both a health-care-card-carrying Canadian resident and an uninsured American citizen who regularly sees doctors on both sides of the border. As such, I'm in a unique position to address the pros and cons of both systems first-hand. If we're going to have this conversation, it would be great if we could start out (for once) with actual facts, instead of ideological posturing, wishful thinking, hearsay, and random guessing about how things get done up here.
To that end, here's the first of a two-part series aimed at busting the common myths Americans routinely tell each other about Canadian health care. When the right-wing hysterics drag out these hoary old bogeymen, this time, we need to be armed and ready to blast them into straw. Because, mostly, straw is all they're made of.
1. Canada's health care system is "socialized medicine."
False. In socialized medical systems, the doctors work directly for the state. In Canada (and many other countries with universal care), doctors run their own private practices, just like they do in the US. The only difference is that every doctor deals with one insurer, instead of 150. And that insurer is the provincial government, which is accountable to the legislature and the voters if the quality of coverage is allowed to slide.
The proper term for this is "single-payer insurance." In talking to Americans about it, the better phrase is "Medicare for all."
2. Doctors are hurt financially by single-payer health care.
True and False. Doctors in Canada do make less than their US counterparts. But they also have lower overhead, and usually much better working conditions. A few reasons for this:
First, as noted, they don't have to charge higher fees to cover the salary of a full-time staffer to deal with over a hundred different insurers, all of whom are bent on denying care whenever possible. In fact, most Canadian doctors get by quite nicely with just one assistant, who cheerfully handles the phones, mail, scheduling, patient reception, stocking, filing, and billing all by herself in the course of a standard workday.
Second, they don't have to spend several hours every day on the phone cajoling insurance company bean counters into doing the right thing by their patients. My doctor in California worked a 70-hour week: 35 hours seeing patients, and another 35 hours on the phone arguing with insurance companies. My Canadian doctor, on the other hand, works a 35-hour week, period. She files her invoices online, and the vast majority are simply paid -- quietly, quickly, and without hassle. There is no runaround. There are no fights. Appointments aren't interrupted by vexing phone calls. Care is seldom denied (because everybody knows the rules). She gets her checks on time, sees her patients on schedule, takes Thursdays off, and gets home in time for dinner.
One unsurprising side effect of all this is that the doctors I see here are, to a person, more focused, more relaxed, more generous with their time, more up-to-date in their specialties, and overall much less distracted from the real work of doctoring. You don't realize how much stress the American doctor-insurer fights put on the day-to-day quality of care until you see doctors who don't operate under that stress, because they never have to fight those battles at all. Amazingly: they seem to enjoy their jobs.
Third: The average American medical student graduates $140,000 in hock. The average Canadian doctor's debt is roughly half that.
Finally, Canadian doctors pay lower malpractice insurance fees. When paying for health care constitutes a one of a family's major expenses, expectations tend to run very high. A doctor's mistake not only damages the body; it may very well throw a middle-class family permanently into the ranks of the working poor, and render the victim uninsurable for life. With so much at stake, it's no wonder people are quick to rush to court for redress.
Canadians are far less likely to sue in the first place, since they're not having to absorb devastating financial losses in addition to any physical losses when something goes awry. The cost of the damaging treatment will be covered. So will the cost of fixing it. And, no matter what happens, the victim will remain insured for life. When lawsuits do occur, the awards don't have to include coverage for future medical costs, which reduces the insurance company's liability.
3. Wait times in Canada are horrendous.
True and False again -- it depends on which province you live in, and what's wrong with you. Canada's health care system runs on federal guidelines that ensure uniform standards of care, but each territory and province administers its own program. Some provinces don't plan their facilities well enough; in those, you can have waits. Some do better. As a general rule, the farther north you live, the harder it is to get to care, simply because the doctors and hospitals are concentrated in the south. But that's just as true in any rural county in the U.S.
You can hear the bitching about it no matter where you live, though. The percentage of Canadians who'd consider giving up their beloved system consistently languishes in the single digits. A few years ago, a TV show asked Canadians to name the Greatest Canadian in history; and in a broad national consensus, they gave the honor to Tommy Douglas, the Saskatchewan premier who is considered the father of the country's health care system. (And no, it had nothing to do with the fact that he was also Kiefer Sutherland's grandfather.). In spite of that, though, grousing about health care is still unofficially Canada's third national sport after curling and hockey.
And for the country's newspapers, it's a prime watchdogging opportunity. Any little thing goes sideways at the local hospital, and it's on the front pages the next day. Those kinds of stories sell papers, because everyone is invested in that system and has a personal stake in how well it functions. The American system might benefit from this kind of constant scrutiny, because it's certainly one of the things that keeps the quality high. But it also makes people think it's far worse than it is.
Critics should be reminded that the American system is not exactly instant-on, either. When I lived in California, I had excellent insurance, and got my care through one of the best university-based systems in the nation. Yet I routinely had to wait anywhere from six to twelve weeks to get in to see a specialist. Non-emergency surgical waits could be anywhere from four weeks to four months. After two years in the BC system, I'm finding the experience to be pretty much comparable, and often better. The notable exception is MRIs, which were easy in California, but can take many months to get here. (It's the number one thing people go over the border for.) Other than that, urban Canadians get care about as fast as urban Americans do.
4. You have to wait forever to get a family doctor.
False for the vast majority of Canadians, but True for a few. Again, it all depends on where you live. I live in suburban Vancouver, and there are any number of first-rate GPs in my neighborhood who are taking new patients. If you don't have a working relationship with one, but need to see a doctor now, there are 24-hour urgent care clinics in most neighborhoods that will usually get you in and out on the minor stuff in under an hour.
It is, absolutely, harder to get to a doctor if you live out in a small town, or up in the territories. But that's just as true in the U.S. -- and in America, the government won't cover the airfare for rural folk to come down to the city for needed treatment, which all the provincial plans do.
5. You don't get to choose your own doctor.
Scurrilously False. Somebody, somewhere, is getting paid a lot of money to make this kind of stuff up. The cons love to scare the kids with stories about the government picking your doctor for you, and you don't get a choice. Be afraid! Be very afraid!
For the record: Canadians pick their own doctors, just like Americans do. And not only that: since it all pays the same, poor Canadians have exactly the same access to the country's top specialists that rich ones do.
6. Canada's care plan only covers the basics. You're still on your own for any extras, including prescription drugs. And you still have to pay for it.
True -- but not as big an issue as you might think. The province does charge a small monthly premium (ours is $108/month for a family of four) for the basic coverage. However, most people never even have to write that check: almost all employers pick up the tab for their employees' premiums as part of the standard benefits package; and the province covers it for people on public assistance or disability.
"The basics" covered by this plan include 100% of all doctor's fees, ambulance fares, tests, and everything that happens in a hospital -- in other words, the really big-ticket items that routinely drive American families into bankruptcy. In BC, it doesn't include "extras" like medical equipment, prescriptions, physical therapy or chiropractic care, dental, vision, and so on; and if you want a private or semi-private room with TV and phone, that costs extra (about what you'd pay for a room in a middling hotel). That other stuff does add up; but it's far easier to afford if you're not having to cover the big expenses, too. Furthermore: you can deduct any out-of-pocket health expenses you do have to pay off your income taxes. And, as every American knows by now, drugs aren't nearly as expensive here, either.
Filling the gap between the basics and the extras is the job of the country's remaining private health insurers. Since they're off the hook for the ruinously expensive big-ticket items that can put their own profits at risk, the insurance companies make a tidy business out of offering inexpensive policies that cover all those smaller, more predictable expenses. Top-quality add-on policies typically run in the ballpark of $75 per person in a family per month -- about $300 for a family of four -- if you're stuck buying an individual plan. Group plans are cheap enough that even small employers can afford to offer them as a routine benefit. An average working Canadian with employer-paid basic care and supplemental insurance gets free coverage equal to the best policies now only offered at a few of America's largest corporations. And that employer is probably only paying a couple hundred dollars a month to provide that benefit.
7. Canadian drugs are not the same.
More preposterious bogosity. They are exactly the same drugs, made by the same pharmaceutical companies, often in the same factories. The Canadian drug distribution system, however, has much tighter oversight; and pharmacies and pharmacists are more closely regulated. If there is a difference in Canadian drugs at all, they're actually likely to be safer.
Also: pharmacists here dispense what the doctors tell them to dispense, the first time, without moralizing. I know. It's amazing.
8. Publicly-funded programs will inevitably lead to rationed health care, particularly for the elderly.
False. And bogglingly so. The papers would have a field day if there was the barest hint that this might be true.
One of the things that constantly amazes me here is how well-cared-for the elderly and disabled you see on the streets here are. No, these people are not being thrown out on the curb. In fact, they live longer, healthier, and more productive lives because they're getting a constant level of care that ensures small things get treated before they become big problems.
The health care system also makes it easier on their caregiving adult children, who have more time to look in on Mom and take her on outings because they aren't working 60-hour weeks trying to hold onto a job that gives them insurance.
9. People won't be responsible for their own health if they're not being forced to pay for the consequences.
False. The philosophical basis of America's privatized health care system might best be characterized as medical Calvinism. It's fascinating to watch well-educated secularists who recoil at the Protestant obsession with personal virtue, prosperity as a cardinal sign of election by God, and total responsibility for one's own salvation turn into fire-eyed, moralizing True Believers when it comes to the subject of Taking Responsibility For One's Own Health.
They'll insist that health, like salvation, is entirely in our own hands. If you just have the character and self-discipline to stick to an abstemious regime of careful diet, clean living, and frequent sweat offerings to the Great Treadmill God, you'll never get sick. (Like all good theologies, there's even an unspoken promise of immortality: f you do it really really right, they imply, you might even live forever.) The virtuous Elect can be discerned by their svelte figures and low cholesterol numbers. From here, it's a short leap to the conviction that those who suffer from chronic conditions are victims of their own weaknesses, and simply getting what they deserve. Part of their punishment is being forced to pay for the expensive, heavily marketed pharmaceuticals needed to alleviate these avoidable illnesses. They can't complain. It was their own damned fault; and it's not our responsibility to pay for their sins. In fact, it's recently been suggested that they be shunned, lest they lead the virtuous into sin.
Of course, this is bad theology whether you're applying it to the state of one's soul or one's arteries. The fact is that bad genes, bad luck, and the ravages of age eventually take their toll on all of us -- even the most careful of us. The economics of the Canadian system reflect this very different philosophy: it's built on the belief that maintaining health is not an individual responsibility, but a collective one. Since none of us controls fate, the least we can do is be there for each other as our numbers come up.
This difference is expressed in a few different ways. First: Canadians tend to think of tending to one's health as one of your duties as a citizen. You do what's right because you don't want to take up space in the system, or put that burden on your fellow taxpayers. Second, "taking care of yourself" has a slightly expanded definition here, which includes a greater emphasis on public health. Canadians are serious about not coming to work if you're contagious, and seeing a doctor ASAP if you need to. Staying healthy includes not only diet and exercise; but also taking care to keep your germs to yourself, avoiding stress, and getting things treated while they're still small and cheap to fix.
Third, there's a somewhat larger awareness that stress leads to big-ticket illnesses -- and a somewhat lower cultural tolerance for employers who put people in high-stress situations. Nobody wants to pick up the tab for their greed. And finally, there's a generally greater acceptance on the part of both the elderly and their families that end-of-life heroics may be drawing resources away from people who might put them to better use. You can have them if you want them; but reasonable and compassionate people should be able to take the larger view.
The bottom line: When it comes to getting people to make healthy choices, appealing to their sense of the common good seems to work at least as well as Calvinist moralizing.
10. This all sounds great -- but the taxes to cover it are just unaffordable. And besides, isn't the system in bad financial shape?
False. On one hand, our annual Canadian tax bite runs about 10% higher than our U.S. taxes did. On the other, we're not paying out the equivalent of two new car payments every month to keep the family insured here. When you balance out the difference, we're actually money ahead. When you factor in the greatly increased social stability that follows when everybody's getting their necessary health care, the impact on our quality of life becomes even more signficant.
And True -- but only because this is a universal truth that we need to make our peace with. Yes, the provincial plans are always struggling. So is every single publicly-funded health care system in the world, including the VA and Medicare. There's always tension between what the users of the system want, and what the taxpayers are willing to pay. The balance of power ebbs and flows between them; but no matter where it lies at any given moment, at least one of the pair is always going to be at least somewhat unhappy.
But, as many of us know all too well, there's also constant tension between what patients want and what private insurers are willing to pay. At least when it's in government hands, we can demand some accountability. And my experience in Canada has convinced me that this accountability is what makes all the difference between the two systems.
It is true that Canada's system is not the same as the U.S. system. It's designed to deliver a somewhat different product, to a population that has somewhat different expectations. But the end result is that the vast majority of Canadians get the vast majority of what they need the vast majority of the time. It'll be a good day when when Americans can hold their heads high and proudly make that same declaration.
Sunday, February 3, 2008
Who's Killing the Iraqis
Apparently, the big spike in "sectarian violence" has to do with the US decision to bring in the Badr Army-a group of Shiite Iraqis who were funded by Iranian theocrats who actually fought against the Iraqis in the Iran-Iraq war. These "Islamo-Fascists", to use Bush's phrase, were escorted into Iraq during our invasion, and given control of things like the Ministry of the Interior (which is sort of like a combination of the Police, FBI and CIA in Iraqi terms). The head of the Interior Ministry was a member of the party that ran the Badr Army. Very quickly, killings of entire families--often involving rape and mutilation--began to be perpetrated by men with police uniforms, police issued arms and driving police vehicles. The current "head" of Iraq, Maliki, is a member of the same party.
The Sunnis have, at the same time, not been inactive. Though, apparently, they've been more nationalist and tending to fight the Americans, they have been drawn increasingly into avenging their own casualties and Shiite hands. A grim story, indeed, bittered by the fact that we (the US) brought the catalyst factor (the Badr Army) into Iraq with US.
Check out the video evidence:
Who's Killing the Iraqis?
Friday, February 1, 2008
I've Argued Against It, Now It's Moving Mainstream
Economists Rethink Free Trade
It's no wholesale repudiation, to be sure, but something momentous is happening as doubts begin to creep in
by Jane Sasseen
BW Magazine
Many ordinary Americans have long been suspicious of free trade, seeing it as a destroyer of good-paying jobs. American economists, though, have told a different story. For them, free trade has been the great unmitigated good, the force that drives a country to shed unproductive industries, focus on what it does best, and create new, higher-skilled jobs that offer better pay than those that are lost. This support of free trade by the academic Establishment is a big reason why Presidents, be they Democrat or Republican, have for years pursued a free-trade agenda. The experts they consult have always told them that free trade was the best route to ever higher living standards.
But something momentous is happening inside the church of free trade: Doubts are creeping in. We're not talking wholesale, dramatic repudiation of the theory. Economists are, however, noting that their ideas can't explain the disturbing stagnation in income that much of the middle class is experiencing. They also fear a protectionist backlash unless more is done to help those who are losing out. "Previously, you just had extremists making extravagant claims against trade," says Gary C. Hufbauer, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. "Now there are broader questions being raised that would not have been asked 10 or 15 years ago."
So the next President may be consulting on trade with experts who feel a lot less confident of the old certainties than they did just a few years ago. From Alan S. Blinder, a former vice-chairman of the Federal Reserve and member of the Council of Economic Advisers in the Clinton Administration, to Dartmouth's Matthew J. Slaughter, an international economist who served on President George W. Bush's CEA, many in the profession are reevaluating the impact of globalization. They have studied the growth of low-wage work abroad and seen how high-speed telecommunications make it possible to handle more jobs offshore. Now they fear these factors are more menacing than they first thought.
GAINS ONLY FOR A TINY SLICE
No one is suggesting that trade is bad for the U.S. overall. According to estimates by the Peterson Institute and others, trade and investment liberalization over the past decades have added $500 billion to $1 trillion to annual income in the U.S.
Yet concern is rising that the gains from free trade may increasingly be going to a small group at the top. For the vast majority of Americans, Dartmouth's Slaughter points out, income growth has all but disappeared in recent years. And it's not just the low-skilled who are getting slammed. Inflation-adjusted earnings have fallen in every educational category other than the 4% who hold doctorates or professional degrees. Such numbers, Slaughter argues, suggest the share of Americans who aren't included in the gains from trade may be very big. "[That's] a very important change from earlier generations, and it should give pause to people who say they know what's going on," he says.
Blinder warns the pain may just be starting. He estimates that eventually up to 40 million service jobs in the U.S. could face competition from workers in India and other low-wage nations. That's more than a quarter of the 140 million employed in the U.S. today. Many of the newly vulnerable will be in skilled fields, such as accounting or research—jobs U.S. companies will be able to move offshore in ever greater numbers. "It will be a messy process of adjustment, with a lot of victims along the way," Blinder says.
The rumble of academic debate is already having an effect on the Presidential campaign. In an interview with the Financial Times late last year, Hillary Clinton agreed with economist Paul A. Samuelson's argument that traditional notions of comparative advantage may no longer apply. "The question of whether spreading globalization and information technology are strengthening or hollowing out our middle class may be the most paramount economic issue of our time," her chief economic adviser, Gene Sperling, recently wrote. Barack Obama's adviser, the University of Chicago's Austan D. Goolsbee, is not convinced free trade is the culprit behind the squeeze on incomes. But he believes many U.S. workers aren't sharing in the gains from open markets and fears a political blowback unless something is done.
A CALL TO ACTION
What to do? Blinder argues for a big expansion of unemployment insurance and a major overhaul of the poorly performing Trade Adjustment Assistance program (TAA), which retrains manufacturing workers whose jobs disappeared. More vocational training and wage insurance, which would partially reimburse displaced workers who take new jobs at lower pay, also figure in his proposals. Both Clinton and Obama—and even Republican Senator John McCain—have similar ideas.
That's not enough, says Slaughter. He sees a need for some form of income redistribution to spread the gains from free trade to more workers. In a controversial article Slaughter co-wrote last summer for Foreign Affairs, he proposed "A New Deal for Globalization" in which payroll taxes for all workers earning below the national median income level would be eliminated. Slaughter has talked with campaign advisers in both parties. So far, he has no takers. But it's one more sign of how far the trade debate has moved.
Sasseen is Washington bureau chief for BusinessWeek