It was a cool idea. We’d all have a car or two, hop in them and go where we wanted, when we wanted. If it were hot, we’d turn on the AC and motor along in cool air. If cold, we had ample heat to warm us. Music would drift from a fine stereo, and the miles would fly by. We could whisk off to the mall or supermarket to shop for frills and food brought from afar, we could ride in comfort to work and transport our families on their various errands here and there. Yet, when I look at traffic as it exists, I know all of this was madness. It doesn’t work.
I’m sitting, locked in traffic; cars all around, "parked" on a road a total of six lanes wide. I will eventually find a way to escape this, but my alternative street won’t be much better. I recall taking the bus into work one morning. It’s about a 7 mile ride into downtown Portland where I work, and it should take perhaps 15 to 20 minutes on clear streets. As the bus, trapped in traffic like everyone else, crawled along at literally a snail’s pace, passengers got off and walked. Walking was much faster. Our system of transport is preposterous. I suppose that on a typical morning there must be at least 300,000 people going to work in the greater Portland area. Effectively all of them commute by car. If there are 1.5 riders per car, that would be 200,000 automobiles, These cars will have a replacement value of around $5000 million, and weigh, collectively about 600 million pounds or 300,000 tons. They will have about 40 million collective horsepower and will use around 300,000 gallons of gasoline making their trip to work and back. This is just for Portland, Or.—a small city.
Portland has mass transit, and some use it. Mostly, however, people don’t. Our city isn’t set up for mass transit. Like most urban areas, we have moved our retail to malls, and drive to them to shop. These malls are surrounded by acres of parking lots. The stores, particularly the “big box” stores rely on the presence of cheap transport to move products from China, and elsewhere, where they’re made, to the mall where we pick them up and drive them home.
The idea of each home owning a couple of $25,000 transport devices and piloting them in great herds down vast highways that cover millions of acres of ground is stunning. Nikita Krushchev, head of the Soviet Union after the death of Joseph Stalin in 1953 through the early 1960s, remarked, on one of his visits to the US about, the tremendous waste in our automobile culture. Most cars only have one occupant, he noted. He was surprised and stunned. At that time, most Soviet citizens didn’t even own a car.
One of the frightening things about automotive culture is the degree to which other peoples want to have their own. China is the fastest growing automobile market in the world, India isn’t far behind. India even has, now, the cheapest car in the world, the Tata Nano, perfect for getting lots of people "on the road". The people of all developing nations crave an automobile and look forward to the mobile Western life style they see portrayed in the media. The threat of Peak Oil suggests that we will soon, or already have reached the peak of would oil output. This suggest a future of rising energy prices, further exacerbated by the skyrocketing demand from developing nations. The international struggle for control of oil resources is already feverish. As noted middle east reporter Robert Fisk so beautifully stated it, “is the Iraq war about oil. Of course it is. Would the 82nd Airborne division be in Iraq if the country’s chief export was tomatoes or asparagus? I very much doubt it.” The pace of killing over oil can do nothing but increase exponentially.
It’s not a question of whether we like it, it’s doesn’t matter if we deny or pooh-pooh it, the end of oil is coming. It’s completely inexorable, and it’s going to be sooner rather than later. My children will face it, fully. The amazing advance of humanity since the 18th century has been propelled by the burning “skyrocket” of fossil fuels. This rocket has been powerful, but it’s fuel is rapidly waning. We will lose our cars. Our cities will need complete redesigning. Carpenters will use hammers and manual saws again. Holes will be excavated with shovels and tall buildings will be poured by men pushing wheel barrows of concrete up long ramps. We will not eat tomatoes flown in from Israel, and goods from China will be too expensive to ship to America. Thinking of all the ways the end of oil will affect us is an engrossing mental exercise. Try it. It will help wile away the time while you sit locked in traffic.
For information on peal oil, go to:
Peak Oil Website
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